加息不断 警惕高负债公司

⊙港澳资讯 马晋
　　
　　目前中报披露已经结束，从表现来看，全流通之后上市公司业绩释放的动力相当大，这是今年中报行情强于往年的根本原因之一。而着眼于成长性方面，管理层培育新的利润来源、提升上市公司成长性的意愿也在明显增强。

我们注意到，近期上市公司披露新建、扩建项目的相当多。由于一般存在的建设期资金需求较大而短期难有回报的问题，项目资金来源如何解决就成了一个相当关键的问题。特别是今年以来央行已经连续多次上调息率，尽管从央行“加强货币信贷调控，引导投资合理增长，稳定通货膨胀预期”的表态以及目前我们经济的运行状态来看，央行举措并非主要针对股市而来，但相信其累积效应对股市的影响将会逐步显现。特别是在以下两个方面，一是在目前股指高位震荡频繁的过程中，加息对于风险厌恶型的资金将会产生的分流效应，当然这一块的具体情况如何尚需观察。二是加息对于各种资源价格市场化的促动。三是加息对于贷款等融资方式成本的提升，这一块应该是显而易见的。特别是贷款比例向来较高的固定资产投资，进而逐步传导到对地产、钢铁等与其关系紧密的行业，这一点需要投资者密切注意。
　　从统计的负债率较高公司的结果来看，由于历史遗留问题造成负债率较高的并不多，只有中达股份等少数几家，更多还是属于负债经营的情况。贷款成本的提高可能会促使上市公司采用其他的融资方式，统计当中的长源电力就把本来要采取的自有资金和债务融资的方式改为了自有资金和定向增发，我们注意到，近期披露定向增发计划的上市公司相当多，尽管也有个别在鱼目混珠，但整体来看这种方式对于减轻短期的财务负担还是有积极作用的。
　　由于资金使用成本的提高，上市公司规划项目的回报率的高低以及回报率产生的快慢就显得更为重要。从二级市场表现来看，投资者对于能够贴近需求、未来市场空间较大的项目规划还是欢迎的，市场对于上市公司管理层的要求或者期望其实并不复杂。
　　此外，从经济运行阶段的不同以及提升社会福利的角度出发，国家对于各个行业的扶持力度也会不同，比如电力、高速公路类的上市公司，经常可以享受到税收的减免，也能够在一定程度上缓解相关公司的财务状况。同时，尽管息率连续上调，但从目前适度通胀的经济运行状态来看，本币购买力的下降仍在继续，包括资金在内的各种资源的使用成本的提高必然沿着产业链向下游传导，在此过程中，上市公司如何转嫁成本压力值得关注。从常规的理论来看，需求呈现一定的刚性和具备较强品牌竞争力以及由此带来的议价能力的上市公司仍有望从中获益，投资者也可从中发掘投资机会。

　　借款负债率较高的公司一览
代码      名称        短期借款                        长期借款                        资产总计                        有息负债率                     有息负债率                     所属行业
                      (万元)                          (万元)                          (万元)                          (%)                            (%)                               
                      [今年中报]                      [今年中报]                      [今年中报]                      [今年中报]                     [去年年报]                        
002039    黔源电力    31000.00                        166350.00                       266021.84                       74.19                          73.25                          公用事业
600106    重庆路桥    49000.00                        222600.00                       403537.37                       67.30                          56.47                          交通运输
002160    常铝股份    52962.00                        18300.00                        111454.25                       63.94                          54.85                          有色金属
000966    长源电力    182500.00                       547817.58                       1143186.76                      63.88                          65.27                          公用事业
600648    外高桥      89974.19                        210488.00                       470501.39                       63.86                          60.48                          房地产
600744    华银电力    102000.00                       515708.68                       982589.32                       62.87                          62.09                          公用事业
002083    孚日股份    260863.15                       35360.00                        479020.15                       61.84                          61.58                          纺织服装
000815    美利纸业    89322.10                        202377.00                       485775.38                       60.05                          55.68                          轻工制造
600310    桂东电力    45000.00                        101674.66                       248776.06                       58.96                          53.31                          公用事业
600886    国投电力    205300.00                       788818.00                       1694321.85                      58.67                          55.60                          公用事业
600074    中达股份    244543.84                       20900.00                        461094.97                       57.57                          50.64                          化工
600798    宁波海运    48000.00                        230300.00                       484028.12                       57.50                          53.31                          交通运输
600396    金山股份    38500.00                        239700.00                       491804.11                       56.57                          63.70                          公用事业
600768    宁波富邦    33400.00                        4235.00                         67309.33                        55.91                          48.19                          有色金属
600591    上海航空    360982.15                       300264.97                       1185260.87                      55.79                          43.02                          交通运输
600373    鑫新股份    39083.00                        19940.00                        105876.56                       55.75                          50.39                          交运设备
002067    景兴纸业    76200.00                        46804.10                        221740.85                       55.47                          41.45                          轻工制造
600792    马龙产业    47760.00                                                        86201.32                        55.41                          50.07                          化工
000525    红太阳      174260.00                       8020.06                         329032.25                       55.40                          47.37                          化工
000877    天山股份    87928.14                        152964.21                       436210.30                       55.22                          56.25                          建筑建材
000933    神火股份    129500.00                       213442.16                       625099.27                       54.86                          48.50                          采掘
002143    高金食品    29800.00                        7900.00                         68727.82                        54.85                          51.89                          农林牧渔
600216    浙江医药    124160.00                       22479.00                        269331.95                       54.45                          50.57                          医药生物
000911    南宁糖业    166545.80                       19660.00                        342604.17                       54.35                          42.77                          食品饮料
601991    大唐发电    1051606.70                      4367460.80                      10113544.20                     53.58                          55.65                          公用事业
600868    梅雁水电    81397.98                        347004.98                       800704.22                       53.50                          56.39                          公用事业
600812    华北制药    374629.00                       2000.00                         704526.47                       53.46                          56.48                          医药生物
600339    天利高新    73800.00                        91000.00                        311597.20                       52.89                          53.22                          化工
000683    远兴能源    75513.47                        86497.00                        309115.70                       52.41                          45.91                          化工
600863    内蒙华电    212000.00                       944580.00                       2208204.32                      52.38                          50.52                          公用事业
600452    涪陵电力    59065.00                        2000.00                         116598.13                       52.37                          50.43                          公用事业
600068    葛洲坝      180900.00                       406096.73                       1126052.96                      52.13                          44.91                          建筑建材
600305    恒顺醋业    100935.00                       25800.00                        243480.28                       52.05                          38.96                          食品饮料
000520    长航凤凰    89500.00                        94824.00                        355276.97                       51.88                          45.56                          交通运输
000043    深南光A     94755.07                        54108.04                        288325.27                       51.63                          55.47                          房地产
600969    郴电国际    25800.00                        85719.03                        216372.93                       51.54                          52.74                          公用事业
600357    承德钒钛    418340.00                       146880.00                       1113229.66                      50.77                          40.35                          黑色金属
000720    鲁能泰山    228676.00                       5500.00                         462299.42                       50.65                          44.68                          公用事业
002159    三特索道    25250.00                        4980.00                         59731.95                        50.61                          41.49                          餐饮旅游
600236    桂冠电力    14000.00                        635467.00                       1289343.04                      50.37                          40.75                          公用事业
000700    模塑科技    125700.00                       6000.00                         261939.87                       50.28                          45.14                          交运设备
600299    星新材料    232680.00                       124500.00                       710795.66                       50.25                          55.60                          化工
代码      名称        短期借款                        长期借款                        资产总计                        有息负债率                     有息负债率                     所属行业
                      (万元)                          (万元)                          (万元)                          (%)                            (%)                               
                      [今年中报]                      [今年中报]                      [今年中报]                      [今年中报]                     [去年年报]                        
600039    四川路桥    95330.00                        111540.00                       412797.19                       50.11                          45.55                          建筑建材
000862    银星能源    36010.00                        24800.00                        121735.20                       49.95                          37.50                          机械设备
600295    鄂尔多斯    520370.00                       195350.00                       1432919.24                      49.95                          49.82                          纺织服装
000050    深天马A     40500.00                        140293.00                       362756.39                       49.84                          22.09                          电子元器件
600176    中国玻纤    203600.00                       153344.63                       722636.43                       49.39                          57.57                          化工
600027    华电国际    820731.40                       2097566.20                      5937827.40                      49.15                          54.28                          公用事业
600660    福耀玻璃    126000.94                       290150.00                       846824.01                       49.14                          49.33                          交运设备
600279    重庆港九    16000.00                        75200.00                        186414.63                       48.92                          47.52                          交通运输
000753    漳州发展    6151.57                         53340.97                        121942.56                       48.79                          46.36                          交通运输
600816    安信信托    36880.00                                                        75999.21                        48.53                          16.79                          金融服务
600221    海南航空    598190.57                       1221602.89                      3752933.52                      48.49                          48.21                          交通运输
002156    通富微电    35746.20                        34686.98                        145864.10                       48.29                          44.88                          电子元器件
600628    新世界      133000.00                       42600.00                        366512.67                       47.91                          30.88                          商业贸易
000789    江西水泥    52455.00                        53600.87                        221374.25                       47.91                          50.86                          建筑建材
600870    厦华电子    148999.61                       28.36                           311937.92                       47.77                          39.31                          家用电器
600141    兴发集团    50260.00                        89587.00                        292771.07                       47.77                          57.86                          化工
600469    风神股份    101646.20                       63517.00                        346000.67                       47.73                          33.89                          化工
600801    华新水泥    108030.00                       249403.82                       749037.56                       47.72                          44.04                          建筑建材
000601    韶能股份    54175.10                        307454.00                       761252.61                       47.50                          50.50                          公用事业
000069    华侨城A     347906.18                       31227.27                        799402.89                       47.43                          36.47                          餐饮旅游
000037    深南电A     182366.51                       30420.07                        450146.16                       47.27                          45.13                          公用事业
600401    江苏申龙    57422.75                        7651.91                         138005.77                       47.15                          55.28                          轻工制造
600581    八一钢铁    168000.00                       260360.00                       908565.02                       47.15                          25.02                          黑色金属
002145    中核钛白    29806.00                        19515.76                        104799.24                       47.06                          45.17                          化工
600262    北方股份    94210.93                        10000.00                        222926.81                       46.75                          44.62                          机械设备
000677    山东海龙    105525.24                       60480.89                        355137.98                       46.74                          44.96                          化工
600063    皖维高新    81030.00                        16900.00                        209948.71                       46.64                          43.61                          化工
000522    白云山A     129888.00                                                       278605.66                       46.62                          50.11                          医药生物
600190    锦州港      34620.00                        144435.00                       384099.13                       46.62                          43.99                          交通运输
600736    苏州高新    307850.00                       107000.00                       890223.35                       46.60                          36.51                          房地产
600053    中江地产    29000.00                        73100.00                        219795.56                       46.45                          31.46                          房地产
000422    湖北宜化    98000.00                        216400.00                       679543.85                       46.27                          39.19                          化工
600803    威远生化    55220.00                                                        119476.58                       46.22                          47.81                          医药生物
600067    冠城大通    156961.81                       95686.87                        549569.04                       45.97                          53.96                          综合
002001    新和成      70800.00                        41590.00                        244806.17                       45.91                          42.98                          医药生物
600272    开开实业    15868.00                        24400.00                        87808.82                        45.86                          42.43                          纺织服装
600618    氯碱化工    134802.00                       168708.00                       662310.61                       45.83                          34.81                          化工
000721    西安饮食    36490.00                        6788.58                         94477.08                        45.81                          34.24                          餐饮旅游
000806    银河科技    112092.41                       39350.00                        333373.48                       45.43                          49.66                          电子元器件
600354    敦煌种业    65647.61                        705.70                          146501.70                       45.29                          46.16                          农林牧渔
600325    华发股份    23000.00                        320000.00                       757641.14                       45.27                          35.16                          房地产
000818    锦化氯碱    68900.00                        91163.74                        354798.14                       45.11                          40.61                          化工

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