日期 |
预警指数 |
一致指数 |
先行指数 |
滞后指数 |
1991.01 |
88.0 |
99.65 |
102.01 |
103.88 |
1991.02 |
90.7 |
99.34 |
102.22 |
103.66 |
1991.03 |
84.0 |
99.65 |
102.77 |
103.18 |
1991.04 |
86.0 |
100.00 |
103.45 |
103.69 |
1991.05 |
89.3 |
101.03 |
103.83 |
104.47 |
1991.06 |
96.7 |
101.40 |
104.28 |
105.78 |
1991.07 |
100.7 |
101.71 |
104.33 |
105.98 |
1991.08 |
100.7 |
101.80 |
104.75 |
105.05 |
1991.09 |
100.7 |
101.86 |
105.48 |
104.51 |
1991.10 |
103.3 |
102.13 |
106.27 |
103.66 |
1991.11 |
106.7 |
102.15 |
106.60 |
103.34 |
1991.12 |
106.7 |
102.13 |
106.56 |
103.27 |
1992.01 |
113.3 |
103.46 |
106.91 |
104.18 |
1992.02 |
113.3 |
104.59 |
107.63 |
104.99 |
1992.03 |
116.0 |
104.88 |
108.47 |
105.31 |
1992.04 |
122.7 |
103.97 |
109.40 |
104.33 |
1992.05 |
120.7 |
102.79 |
110.18 |
103.66 |
1992.06 |
122.0 |
103.55 |
111.37 |
102.68 |
1992.07 |
115.3 |
104.16 |
112.20 |
102.52 |
1992.08 |
118.7 |
105.25 |
112.35 |
102.93 |
1992.09 |
121.3 |
105.43 |
111.00 |
102.61 |
1992.10 |
121.3 |
105.94 |
109.44 |
102.74 |
1992.11 |
132.0 |
106.66 |
108.56 |
102.60 |
1992.12 |
135.3 |
107.33 |
107.28 |
103.79 |
1993.01 |
139.3 |
109.76 |
107.36 |
105.02 |
1993.02 |
139.3 |
111.58 |
107.61 |
105.66 |
1993.03 |
142.0 |
113.64 |
108.22 |
105.18 |
1993.04 |
148.7 |
113.87 |
107.34 |
105.29 |
1993.05 |
148.7 |
114.13 |
106.07 |
105.79 |
1993.06 |
148.7 |
113.05 |
103.83 |
106.76 |
1993.07 |
142.7 |
111.16 |
102.25 |
106.92 |
1993.08 |
142.7 |
109.18 |
100.85 |
107.23 |
1993.09 |
132.0 |
107.79 |
101.24 |
107.98 |
1993.10 |
132.0 |
107.17 |
101.34 |
108.97 |
1993.11 |
135.3 |
108.08 |
103.61 |
110.00 |
1993.12 |
134.0 |
108.45 |
103.35 |
111.53 |
1994.01 |
130.7 |
106.49 |
101.76 |
113.65 |
1994.02 |
124.0 |
104.23 |
98.30 |
114.40 |
1994.03 |
117.3 |
103.50 |
97.16 |
113.74 |
1994.04 |
119.3 |
104.93 |
97.32 |
111.75 |
1994.05 |
119.3 |
105.77 |
97.26 |
111.00 |
1994.06 |
128.7 |
107.08 |
98.80 |
110.46 |
1994.07 |
132.7 |
108.72 |
99.71 |
110.77 |
1994.08 |
136.7 |
109.62 |
101.28 |
110.94 |
1994.09 |
139.3 |
109.54 |
100.79 |
111.19 |
1994.10 |
138.7 |
109.15 |
101.05 |
110.88 |
1994.11 |
138.7 |
108.79 |
99.33 |
110.09 |
1994.12 |
136.0 |
107.66 |
99.95 |
108.04 |
1995.01 |
132.0 |
106.50 |
100.74 |
104.97 |
1995.02 |
131.3 |
105.23 |
102.60 |
102.37 |
1995.03 |
124.0 |
104.07 |
102.65 |
101.30 |
1995.04 |
123.3 |
102.89 |
102.30 |
101.32 |
1995.05 |
126.0 |
102.33 |
102.09 |
100.84 |
1995.06 |
120.7 |
101.21 |
100.91 |
99.68 |
1995.07 |
109.3 |
100.43 |
100.52 |
97.98 |
1995.08 |
107.3 |
99.80 |
99.60 |
96.31 |
1995.09 |
111.3 |
100.17 |
99.93 |
94.89 |
1995.10 |
114.0 |
99.42 |
99.35 |
93.81 |
1995.11 |
114.0 |
99.58 |
99.89 |
93.69 |
1995.12 |
114.0 |
100.01 |
99.64 |
94.68 |
1996.01 |
111.3 |
101.53 |
99.39 |
96.34 |
1996.02 |
106.0 |
100.61 |
98.82 |
98.00 |
1996.03 |
106.0 |
100.24 |
98.68 |
99.10 |
1996.04 |
104.0 |
99.35 |
99.25 |
99.62 |
1996.05 |
106.7 |
99.39 |
99.99 |
99.98 |
1996.06 |
106.7 |
99.37 |
99.73 |
100.34 |
1996.07 |
105.3 |
99.39 |
99.81 |
100.99 |
1996.08 |
97.3 |
99.57 |
99.73 |
101.41 |
1996.09 |
93.3 |
99.65 |
100.81 |
101.56 |
1996.10 |
93.3 |
100.05 |
101.21 |
101.33 |
1996.11 |
92.0 |
100.44 |
101.46 |
100.61 |
1996.12 |
92.0 |
99.69 |
101.48 |
100.14 |
1997.01 |
94.7 |
98.56 |
101.51 |
99.20 |
1997.02 |
97.3 |
98.35 |
100.94 |
98.54 |
1997.03 |
100.0 |
98.34 |
100.83 |
98.31 |
1997.04 |
100.0 |
98.57 |
100.07 |
98.65 |
1997.05 |
99.3 |
98.04 |
99.70 |
99.33 |
1997.06 |
100.7 |
97.54 |
100.32 |
99.27 |
1997.07 |
94.0 |
97.01 |
100.27 |
99.05 |
1997.08 |
92.0 |
96.64 |
100.55 |
98.76 |
1997.09 |
96.0 |
96.61 |
99.60 |
98.60 |
1997.10 |
89.3 |
96.52 |
99.51 |
98.69 |
1997.11 |
88.0 |
95.80 |
99.34 |
98.48 |
1997.12 |
82.0 |
94.93 |
99.11 |
97.34 |
1998.01 |
74.0 |
94.09 |
99.26 |
96.56 |
1998.02 |
70.0 |
94.82 |
99.20 |
96.28 |
1998.03 |
62.0 |
94.91 |
99.07 |
95.82 |
1998.04 |
64.7 |
94.89 |
98.64 |
95.03 |
1998.05 |
58.7 |
94.11 |
98.01 |
93.67 |
1998.06 |
60.7 |
94.12 |
97.53 |
93.37 |
1998.07 |
60.7 |
94.62 |
96.82 |
93.21 |
1998.08 |
63.3 |
94.90 |
97.01 |
93.34 |
1998.09 |
63.3 |
94.98 |
97.64 |
93.38 |
1998.10 |
66.0 |
95.22 |
98.82 |
93.24 |
1998.11 |
70.0 |
95.12 |
98.73 |
93.12 |
1998.12 |
66.7 |
94.81 |
99.20 |
94.91 |
1999.01 |
62.7 |
94.15 |
99.18 |
95.27 |
1999.02 |
62.7 |
92.86 |
100.33 |
95.24 |
1999.03 |
60.0 |
92.67 |
100.19 |
93.47 |
1999.04 |
59.3 |
92.62 |
100.90 |
93.19 |
1999.05 |
59.3 |
93.42 |
101.32 |
93.25 |
1999.06 |
62.7 |
93.36 |
101.21 |
93.39 |
1999.07 |
62.7 |
93.05 |
101.36 |
93.35 |
1999.08 |
62.0 |
93.19 |
100.46 |
93.62 |
1999.09 |
70.0 |
93.40 |
99.80 |
93.58 |
1999.10 |
70.7 |
94.06 |
99.06 |
93.56 |
1999.11 |
77.3 |
94.34 |
99.85 |
93.02 |
1999.12 |
77.3 |
96.10 |
100.64 |
91.29 |
2000.01 |
75.3 |
96.53 |
101.17 |
91.30 |
2000.02 |
79.3 |
97.56 |
100.94 |
91.32 |
2000.03 |
83.3 |
96.94 |
100.99 |
92.85 |
2000.04 |
87.3 |
97.29 |
100.39 |
92.56 |
2000.05 |
87.3 |
97.02 |
100.03 |
92.32 |
2000.06 |
93.3 |
97.38 |
100.16 |
91.63 |
2000.07 |
90.7 |
97.92 |
100.20 |
91.48 |
2000.08 |
93.3 |
97.71 |
100.34 |
90.99 |
2000.09 |
93.3 |
97.37 |
99.89 |
90.89 |
2000.10 |
90.7 |
96.27 |
99.61 |
91.33 |
2000.11 |
86.7 |
95.94 |
98.89 |
92.47 |
2000.12 |
83.3 |
95.17 |
98.56 |
92.71 |
2001.01 |
91.3 |
96.43 |
98.63 |
92.42 |
2001.02 |
91.3 |
96.86 |
99.11 |
91.65 |
2001.03 |
91.3 |
97.52 |
99.62 |
91.70 |
2001.04 |
88.7 |
96.67 |
99.74 |
91.70 |
2001.05 |
85.3 |
96.33 |
99.69 |
92.27 |
2001.06 |
88.0 |
95.83 |
99.73 |
93.00 |
2001.07 |
83.3 |
95.29 |
100.10 |
93.17 |
2001.08 |
83.3 |
95.17 |
100.37 |
92.93 |
2001.09 |
76.7 |
95.03 |
100.31 |
92.47 |
2001.10 |
73.3 |
95.06 |
100.16 |
91.73 |
2001.11 |
76.0 |
95.01 |
100.33 |
91.41 |
2001.12 |
76.7 |
95.29 |
100.70 |
90.95 |
2002.01 |
76.7 |
94.99 |
100.72 |
90.88 |
2002.02 |
76.7 |
95.07 |
100.76 |
90.99 |
2002.03 |
76.7 |
95.49 |
100.67 |
91.04 |
2002.04 |
82.7 |
96.58 |
100.71 |
91.23 |
2002.05 |
85.3 |
97.01 |
100.82 |
91.19 |
2002.06 |
85.3 |
97.22 |
101.03 |
91.33 |
2002.07 |
89.3 |
97.15 |
101.21 |
91.65 |
2002.08 |
94.7 |
97.90 |
101.52 |
92.12 |
2002.09 |
94.7 |
98.33 |
101.65 |
92.64 |
2002.10 |
94.7 |
98.90 |
101.95 |
93.06 |
2002.11 |
100.7 |
98.44 |
101.37 |
93.32 |
2002.12 |
100.7 |
99.09 |
101.58 |
94.38 |
2003.01 |
107.3 |
100.00 |
101.87 |
95.05 |
2003.02 |
107.3 |
100.90 |
102.19 |
95.95 |
2003.03 |
104.7 |
100.21 |
101.32 |
96.34 |
2003.04 |
101.3 |
99.10 |
100.45 |
97.24 |
2003.05 |
97.3 |
99.06 |
100.53 |
97.52 |
2003.06 |
101.3 |
99.46 |
101.17 |
97.54 |
2003.07 |
109.3 |
99.93 |
102.00 |
97.47 |
2003.08 |
109.3 |
99.93 |
102.03 |
97.61 |
2003.09 |
109.3 |
99.91 |
102.38 |
97.97 |
2003.10 |
112.0 |
99.98 |
102.41 |
98.41 |
2003.11 |
112.0 |
100.39 |
102.58 |
98.67 |
2003.12 |
112.7 |
101.01 |
102.69 |
98.63 |
2004.01 |
112.7 |
101.85 |
102.41 |
98.58 |
2004.02 |
118.7 |
102.32 |
102.53 |
98.72 |
2004.03 |
125.3 |
102.61 |
102.38 |
99.14 |
2004.04 |
114.7 |
102.48 |
102.33 |
99.43 |
2004.05 |
112.0 |
102.18 |
101.65 |
99.45 |
2004.06 |
112.0 |
101.84 |
101.09 |
99.29 |
2004.07 |
105.3 |
101.51 |
100.84 |
99.10 |
2004.08 |
97.3 |
101.20 |
100.88 |
99.12 |
2004.09 |
97.3 |
101.10 |
100.71 |
98.76 |
2004.10 |
97.3 |
101.09 |
100.76 |
98.07 |
2004.11 |
97.3 |
101.15 |
100.67 |
97.23 |
2004.12 |
100.0 |
100.53 |
100.99 |
96.41 |
2005.01 |
100.0 |
100.04 |
101.21 |
96.46 |
2005.02 |
100.0 |
99.69 |
101.49 |
96.17 |
2005.03 |
97.3 |
99.92 |
101.83 |
95.68 |
2005.04 |
97.3 |
100.14 |
102.24 |
94.47 |
2005.05 |
97.3 |
100.48 |
102.60 |
93.58 |
2005.06 |
104.0 |
100.62 |
102.60 |
93.20 |
2005.07 |
104.0 |
100.84 |
102.48 |
93.00 |
2005.08 |
106.7 |
100.85 |
102.41 |
92.85 |
2005.09 |
102.7 |
100.99 |
102.31 |
92.94 |
2005.10 |
106.7 |
100.92 |
102.00 |
93.41 |
2005.11 |
106.7 |
100.83 |
102.06 |
94.00 |
2005.12 |
104.0 |
101.03 |
102.22 |
94.91 |
2006.01 |
101.3 |
100.82 |
102.67 |
94.51 |
2006.02 |
101.3 |
100.93 |
102.88 |
94.51 |
2006.03 |
104.7 |
100.81 |
102.83 |
94.15 |
2006.04 |
107.3 |
101.34 |
102.54 |
94.84 |
2006.05 |
107.3 |
101.55 |
102.32 |
95.69 |
2006.06 |
106.7 |
101.63 |
102.04 |
96.33 |
2006.07 |
106.7 |
101.37 |
101.90 |
97.09 |
2006.08 |
105.3 |
101.15 |
101.99 |
97.54 |
2006.09 |
100.0 |
100.91 |
102.28 |
97.92 |
2006.10 |
100.0 |
100.93 |
102.50 |
98.30 |
2006.11 |
104.0 |
100.68 |
102.53 |
98.50 |
2006.12 |
101.3 |
101.28 |
103.02 |
98.09 |
2007.01 |
101.3 |
101.65 |
102.97 |
98.77 |
2007.02 |
108.0 |
102.03 |
102.77 |
99.05 |
2007.03 |
108.0 |
102.06 |
102.54 |
99.97 |
2007.04 |
108.0 |
102.19 |
102.88 |
99.62 |
指标解释:(编制方法及简要分析参见www.cemac.org.cn)一致指数是反映当前经济的基本走势,由工业生产、就业、社会需求(投资、消费、外贸)、社会收入(国家税收、企业利润、居民收入)等4个方面合成;先行指数是由一组领先于一致指数的先行指标合成,用于对经济未来的走势进行预测;滞后指数是由落后于一致指数的滞后指标合成得到,它主要用于对经济循环的峰与谷的一种确认;预警指数是把经济运行的状态分为5个级别,“红灯”表示经济过热,“黄灯”表示经济偏热,“绿灯”表示经济运行正常,“浅蓝灯”表示经济偏冷,“蓝灯”表示经济过冷。
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