方星海作为中国资本市场监管者的代表，在达沃斯论坛成为焦点。面对各方针对中国股市及经济走
相关公司股票走势
《第一财经日报》根据前方记者提供信息以及达沃斯官网视频、媒体报道，对方星海在达沃斯的主要观点进行了英文和中文的同步整理，以给读者提供尽量准确的信息。
焦点一：如何应对市场波动
方星海认为，中国市场经历的剧烈波动，是由内外两方因素所致。一是中国经济正在经历从投资和出口拉动型向消费拉动型转变的过程中，二是伴随美联储加息，全球新兴市场存在下行压力。他希望这种波动不要受到过多关注，应得到正视。同时他表示，中国正在推进改革，基于强大的领导力，中国有能力对改革战略予以贯彻执行。
以下是他在圆桌论坛环节的发言：
主持人：Mr Fang, how do you explain volatility, is this something that we just need to learn to live with?
方先生，您如何解释（最近）的市场波动，这是否是我们需要去适应的一种现实？
方星海: Maybe there are two factors going to.
One is that China is in the midst of transmitting from an economy that relying heavily on investment and exports to an economy a lot more dependent on more domestic consumption, and in this transition, a lot of assets get revalued in the process. And this is the primary reason lying behind the volatility.
Another factor is the Fed raised the interest rate not long ago. A lot of emerging markets didn’t perform very well. Their domestic reforms got stalled.
So you got a combination of a Chinese transition plus an international flux. And that caused volatilities. And we are at the beginning of the year. Asset price adjustment usually went by steps. It doesn’t always go smoothly. And we just hit that step at the beginning of the year.
（谈及波动率），需要考虑两个因素。
一个因素是中国正处于从投资和出口拉动型经济，向内需拉动型经济的转型过程中。在此过程中，许多资产会经历价值重估。这正是市场波动背后的主要因素。另一个因素是美联储不久之前开启加息进程，许多新兴市场表现不够理想，他们国内的改革也有所停滞。
所以，中国的转型和国际因素的传导，共同引发了市场波动。资产价格的修正一般会一步一步实现，并且这一过程不会一帆风顺。我们今年年初正好面临到转型的关键步骤。
主持人: 2013, China promised to give the market a decisive role in economy, and since we had intervention of both stock and currency market, what do you foresee china fulfill its pledge?
2013年，中国承诺让市场在经济中发挥关键作用，（鉴于近来）对股票市场和货币市场都在进行干预，你预期中国将如何实现承诺？
方星海:There are three issues. One is communication, as Christine said.
The other is that is there is a real strategy to transiting from an investment led economy to a consumption led economy。
The third issue is that some people questioning the execution of the strategy. Volatility by themselves should not be worry for people like everyone here, but in terms of communication, we should do a better job, and we are learning and we are doing it. We are here today to communicate. And you have to be patient because our system is not structured in a way that could always be able to communicate seamlessly with the market. We are learning it. And China can learn.
这个问题可以从三个方面来讲。第一，是沟通，就如拉加德刚刚提及的。第二，对于从投资拉动型向消费拉动型经济增长方式转变，我们是否有切实可行的战略安排。
第三，就是受到质疑的战略执行力。波动本身并不足以构成使得今天在场的许多人担心，但是我们的确需要在沟通方面做得更好一些，这也是我们正在学习和正在做的。我们今天（来到达沃斯论坛）就是来进行沟通的。不过大家需要耐心一些，因为我们的体制的设计，不能保证我们总是能够与市场无缝沟通。我们正在学习，中国能够学会。
In terms of strategy, we do have one. And it is the right one, that is to reduce investment, to expand consumption, to shift more income from the state-owned sector to the pockets of consumers, and to do what we call a supply-side structural reform. And the purpose of that reform is to make the supply side of the economy more responsive to consumer demands.
The consumers are demanding many goods and services, such as healthcare, education, entertainment, high quality consumer goods. So there raise a lot opportunities.
谈到战略，我们确实有，而且（我认为）是一个正确的战略。即减少投资，扩大内需，将更多的收入从国有板块，转移到消费者口袋里去，也包括推行我们所说的供给侧改革。供给侧改革的目的，是为了使经济的供给侧能够更好更快地满足消费者的需求。
消费者对于许多的商品和服务，包括医疗、教育、娱乐，以及高品质消费品都存在需求。（因此），推行这一改革会带来很多的机会。
Then comes to the execution. It is happening. The consumption share of the GDP is increasing. Yes, we could move bigger, we could move quicker, but we are at the right direction. And ultimately when you look at a country, you look two things. One is the economicfundamentals. Another thing you should look is the leadership. You have strong leadership, you have confidence at the country. I think we have the strongest leadership in this world at this point.
对战略的执行，也已经在进行。消费占GDP的份额正在增加。没错，我们的确可以在转型方面取得更大成就，加快转型速度，但无论如何我们的方向是正确的。当你评估一个国家时，你需要对两个方面进行评估。一个是经济基本面，另一个领导力。（只要）有强大的领导力，人们就会对这个国家有信心。我认为，从这一点来说，我们拥有世界上最强大的领导力。
焦点二：中国有没有能力监管市场
近期股市、汇市连续波动，使得国际市场对中国监管层的能力提出质疑。对此，方星海表示，中国正在学习。在他看来，中国有世界最强的领导力，能够应对波动。
以下是圆桌论坛部分的问答：
主持人：A question on regulation that I want to get to, last week, the chairman of China’s stock regulator basically indicated that the department was having trouble with keeping up with the market more sophistication? Is the market getting too complex for China to regulate properly?
主持人:我有一个关于监管方面的问题。上周（中国）股票监管机构的主席基本上暗示其机构在如何适应越来越复杂的市场方面，遇到了一些麻烦。那么市场是否变得越来越复杂，以至于中国已经无法进行适当监管了呢？
Fang: I understand what you are saying. These are short-term challenges. China has the talent, I mean you have so many people going to universities, going to graduate schools, going to good Chinese and Western universities, you know, we have the people. And government services, public services, still carry a very high esteem in China. So I have no doubt, we have the talent.
The market of course has become more complex, and sometimes we don’t know how to deal with the market very well yet. But we can learn.
方星海: 我明白你所说的。这些都是短期的挑战。中国有（足够的）人才。中国有那么多人去大学，去研究生院，去中国和西方的顶尖大学学习。所以我们有（足够的）人才。此外，政府服务、公共服务在中国还是得到极高评价的。因此，毋庸置疑，我们有人才。
当然，市场的确变得日益复杂了，有时我们还不知道如何非常好地应对市场，但我们会学习的。
主持人：There is a commitment since last month we had a mysterious source to person quoted by the People’s Daily, saying that China must get used to the L-shape recovery as the reform is push through now. What is the risk of waiting too long?
主持人：上个月，人民日报上的权威人士撰文曾表示，中国在转型的过程中，需要适应L型的经济走势，那么，如果改革推行得太慢，其背后蕴含着何种风险呢？
Fang: You mentioned about the stock market volatility and currency volatility at the start of this year. I would like to suggest, the stock market volatility should not be something that people should be so concerned with, since even at today’s level, which I was told （the shanghai stock market declined by 2%）is now standing around 2900. It’s 40% down from the peak, but it is still 30% up from a year and half ago. And our valuation is still very rich.
And since the stock market is rather isolated from the rest of the world, the impact of the stock market to the outside world is very minimal.
方星海：你刚刚提到今年年初的股市和汇市波动。我建议，大家不要太多的关注股票市场的波动，因为即使当前，（上证指数下跌了2%），我们的股市依然在2900点上下。这一位置虽然比峰值时下跌了40%，但比一年半以前，仍然要高出30%。我们的估值还是很“可观”。
此外，我们的股市还是相对独立于全球市场之外的，因此A股对国际市场的影响也比较小。
Currency volatility, yes, is something you should pay attention to. Since Ms. Largade is here, I just want to say a few words on that.
China used have, what we called a crawling peg against the US dollar. Now we are moving toward a basket approach. And that approach is a serious approach. It’s not just something that we say we will do it. People when they look at the actual daily movement, they think my goodness, what is PBOC doing, you know, sometimes they kind of move back to the crawling peg. I think we should not focus on the central bank strategy too much on just a few day’s movement. If you look at the strategy over a period of time, let’s say half a year, or year, you would realize that moving to a basket approach is the decided policy of China.
关于货币方面的波动，的确是需要关注的事情。正好拉加德女士今天也在这里，我想就此发表一些看法。
中国过去一直采用钉住美元的政策，我们现在已经转为参考一揽子货币了。我们对这一（新）方式是认真的，不仅仅是口头说说而已。当人们观察市场每天的走势时，他们可能会想，天啊，中国央行在干什么呢，有时他们会质疑中国银行是不是又要恢复到过去的钉住美元政策。我认为，我们不应该过度关注央行仅仅几天的行为。如果你以半年或是一年为基准，观察衡量央行的策略，你会意识到中国是非常有决心推行（参考一揽子货币的）政策的。
Very briefly on debt and financial crisis, you will see volatilities in Chinese market going forward, but can the government deal with it? I think we will. We are able to deal with it. We can because our structure of the government is such that the response to any financial risk is very swift. The decision is decisive; we want to make sure we deal with it when the issues are not very big. And again, it always comes down to leadership. Since we have steady, strong leadership, we will be able to deal with it.
最后，我非常简短地回应一下关于债务问题以及是否会有金融危机（的担忧）。诚然，中国市场的波动性将持续下去，但问题是政府是否能应对呢？我认为我们将去应对波动，我们也能够应对它。因为我们的政府结构能够使得我们在情况没有变得非常严重前及时处理问题。此外，再一次，归根结底这还是涉及到领导力。我们有强健的领导力，我们有能力应对市场的波动。
（回应另一位嘉宾追问）
I agree that SMEs are great contributor to Chinese growth. Our stock market should have done a lot more to support growth, it is doing quite a lot by the way, just take last year, last year Chinese stock market raised 1.4 trillion RMB in equity money for the Chinese companies, that makes the Chinese stock market NO.1 in the world in terms of equity raised. But we can certainly do much better.
我认同中小企业对中国经济增长贡献很大，我们的股票市场也应该对中小企业的增长提供更多支持。顺便提一句，我们的股票市场已经为此做出不少（努力）。以去年为例，去年中国股票市场为企业提供的融资达到1.4万亿人民币，这在全球股权融资中是最高的。当然，我们还可以做的更多。
And just one very short sentence about the financial crisis. China is different from other developing countries in a sense that our growth is largely fueled by domestic savings, by domesticcapital. That gives us a confidence in our ability to deal with whatever volatilities, risks that comes out of financial market.
再非常简单地提一下金融危机。中国和其他发展中国家的不同之处在于，我们的增长主要是由国内储蓄、国内资本驱动的。这一事实使我们有信心能够处理金融市场出现的任何波动和风险。
焦点三：对A股市值的评价
方星海在回应论坛主持人提问时对A股波动情况表达了自己的看法，他认为，当前大盘指数依然在2900点左右，虽然与峰值相比下跌40%，但比一年半以前，仍然要高出30%。估值仍然“可观”。
答问原文请看上文的圆桌问答。
焦点四：熔断“失误”谁之过
熔断机制在引入A股之后，第一个交易日就被触发，并在运行4个交易日之后即被叫停。这也使得评价熔断机制，成为方星海在达沃斯必须面对的一个话题。
在接受CNN采访之后，他的表态立即引发国内市场热议。有观点认为，方星海将熔断的错误推给市场，称散户为主导致熔断失败；还有观点称，方星海在达沃斯承认熔断是个错误，是证监会高层存在分歧。
但是，回顾采访问答可以看到，方星海并非认为散户为主是熔断无效的原因。在他看来，1月初市场下跌，是由散户为主的投资者结构，加上货币贬值、新兴市场下行等因素共同作用。这时候，因为有熔断机制的存在，使得流动性被中止。
在对熔断机制进行评价时，他表示，熔断机制不适合中国市场，而且监管层已经承认了这一点，希望可以对监管层勇于认错给予肯定。
事实上，证监会在叫停熔断机制时，已经公开承认了熔断机制的问题。1月7日，证监会宣布暂停实施熔断，并承认熔断机制“起了助跌的作用”，“负面影响大于正面效应”。证监会主席肖钢在16日的年度监管工作会议中，也表示要处理好借鉴国际经验与立足国情的关系，强调要从实际出发，不照抄照搬。
以下是方星海接受CNN记者采访的回应：
CNN： Question about circuit breaker.
方星海：We learnt the circuit breaker from the West markets. The circuit breaker is a standard practice in a lot of Western markets, so we thought that perhaps it could work in China as well. But of course you know, in our market, dominated by small investors, coupled with the depreciation of the currency and downward pressure of a lot of emerging markets in the world, there is a lot of pressure for selling. So you have that circuit breaker, it could stop the liquidity again, and it stop the liquidity.
我们是从西方市场学习的熔断机制。熔断机制在许多西方市场是一项较为普遍的实践，所以我们曾经以为这一机制可能在中国也会发挥作用。但是如你所知，我们的市场，投资者以散户为主，加上货币贬值、新兴市场承受下行压力，市场有很强的抛压。所以当存在熔断机制时，触发机制后会再一次中断流动性，它也确实中断了流动性。
CNN：So was it the question that circuit breaker was a bad idea or that you just got procedures wrong?
那么，到底是熔断机制本身不是一个好的制度，还是你们操作出现了问题？
方星海：It was not an appropriate policy for China and the regulator admitted it. We should give regulators credit for admitting the mistake.
熔断机制对中国而言不是一个合适的政策，而且监管层已经承认了这一点。我们应该对监管者勇于承认错误给予肯定。
作者：杜卿卿 后歆桐来源一财网)
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