迟福林 中国(海南)改革发展研究院院长
“十二五”解决收入分配差距拉大的矛盾,关键在于强化政府在完善收入分配体制中的基本责任。
坚持扩大内需战略,保持经济平稳较快发展,重要的是通过收入分配体制改革,建立扩大,消费需求的长效机制。收入分配差距的扩大,有市场的因素,更有政府的因素。例如,国有资本配置本质上是政府行为问题。因此,推进收入分配改革,首要的是规范政府行为,发挥政府在“提低、扩中、限高”中的重要作用。
收入分配差距扩大与政府主导型经济增长方式相关。
以追求GDP总量为导向的增长方式,重投资轻消费;以国民收入为导向的增长方式,是消费拉动的增长,目标是公平与可持续发展。应当说,收入分配差距的不断扩大,不仅与追求总量的增长方式相关,而且又是这种增长方式的必然结果。这是因为政府主导型经济增长需要大量的财政资源,使公共财政体制难以建立;政府主导型经济增长倾向于长期压低劳动力报酬,由此使得劳动报酬增长速度长期低于GDP增长速度;政府主导型经济增长偏好“做大蛋糕”,使“分好蛋糕”的矛盾逐步突出。
以政府转型推动“十二五”收入分配制度改革。
“十二五”收入分配制度改革已成为全国关注的重大焦点问题。能不能破题,能不能有所作为,都直接取决于政府发展理念的转变以及政府转型的实际进程。
以收入分配改革带动财税体制改革。这些年,财税体制以及相关的结构性改革滞后,是收入分配关系难以理顺的根本原因。“十二五”财税体制改革的有效性,取决于其能否在调节国民收入分配格局中发挥基础性作用。
例如,完善财政收入体制,在将国有资产租金和利润、土地出让金等预算外收入、非预算收入纳入财政预算的同时,实施结构性减税政策,在初次分配中降低政府生产税的比重,提高劳动者报酬份额;在再分配中调整财政支出结构,大幅度降低经济建设支出和行政管理费用的占比,为推进基本公共服务均等化奠定重要的财政基础;以基本公共服务均等化为目标改革中央与地方财税体制,形成事权与财力相匹配的中央地方财税体制,有效地促进政府转型;建立和完善人大对财政预算的审查和批准体制,实现财政公开化和民主化,为政治体制改革寻求现实的突破口。
加快推进垄断行业收入分配制度改革。垄断是造成国民收入分配失衡的重要因素之一。缩小收入分配差距,需要进一步打破垄断,尽快建立起规范化的收租分红制度,提高国有企业上缴租、税的比重。
一是防止“国进民退”。这两年社会对“国进民退”有比较大的意见。建议尽快出台详细的《反垄断法》实施细则,放开垄断领域门槛、引入竞争,通过市场法律规范国有企业的投资领域;二是尽快建立常态化的垄断行业和国有企业收租分红机制。建议将征收“特别收益金”改为征收“超额利润税”,将垄断利润以税收名义收归公共所有;三是建立全口径的财政预算体系,尤其是涵盖国有企业的资源使用租金和利润分红。
促进工资谈判制度和工资定期增长机制的形成。其中的关键在于赋予并保障工人进行工资集体谈判的权利。除了工会,鼓励探索多种形式的工资集体谈判机制。此外,应当加强对最低工资的监管力度,切实保护劳动者权益。
确立政府在“十二五”收入分配改革的约束性指标。
从社会对这项改革的需求看,在这方面要有明确的约束性指标。着眼于发展方式转型,建议“十二五”这五年,应努力把我国消费率从2008年的48.6%提高到55%-60%左右,并且在国民收入分配结构调整上制定相应的约束性指标。
例如,实施国民收入倍增计划。考虑通货膨胀因素,使城乡人均收入在“十二五”翻一番,年均增长在15%左右,是一个结构性的增长,是一个综合性的指标,包括实际收入、劳动报酬、最低工资增长幅度、基本公共服务均等化的程度、税制改革、通胀预期控制。
“十二五”时期,要使居民收入在国民收入中的占比从约60%提高到65%左右,劳动报酬占GDP比重从2007年的39.7%提高到50%左右。
英文摘要 Summary
COVER STORY
Privacy, Identity and a New Web Frontier
Private information and personal identities are becoming increasingly hard to protect as China introduces a real-name registration system to many aspects of life, from online gaming and e-commerce, to train ticket purchases and even knife buying before big events such as this year’s Asian Games in Guangzhou.
Advocates of real-name registration argue that it prevents libel and quells rumors while encouraging reasoned debate over the Internet. Government regulators have stepped up rule-making and technological development to expedite the trend. Yet users of the Internet and mobile devices are, in fact, under ubiquitous surveillance. Vendors package and trade private information. And freedom of expression on the Internet can easily be infringed.
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CIVIL SERVANT HOME SUBSIDIES DRAW FIRE
The planned economy’s subsidized housing system wound down in 1998, but some government workers in Beijing are still enjoying these advantages under a similar system that reduces costs for new home buyers. Some experts are crying foul, saying civil servants are getting unfair perks. The program has been operating quietly and involves developers who get tax breaks as well as eligible buyers in middle income brackets who get new homes at low prices.
The real estate business at two new buildings in Beijing’s Shougang Group community typifies the system. Houses here sell at prices far below those in commercial housing projects around the city. The homes are officially available to the public, but developers have failed to follow the process. Critics say the system is non-transparent and is a clear case of social inequity.
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China’s 16 listed banks cheered a profitable third quarter, with earnings growth averaging nearly 30 percent. But the China Banking Regulatory Commission did not join the party. Instead, CBRC expressed concern over risk associated with borrowing by local government financing platforms, and said it would adopt a dynamic system for monitoring loans.
Why is CBRC nervous even while banks are claiming low credit risks and sufficient provisions? Century Weekly learned the two sides have adopted different standards for assessing risk. New statistics show about 80 percent of local platform loans are used for fixed assets, and that medium- to long-term loans account for more than 90 percent. That means defaults may explode, but far in the future. Even now, though, since many loans are backed by land-use rights, falling land prices may jeopardize repayments.
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Concerned about potential risks in China’s red-hot real estate sector, regulators conducted bank loan pressure tests early this year, looking at 13 parameters related to housing. The results were surprisingly positive. But banking regulators, unconvinced, launched a second survey of 60 real estate developers. They found a darker underside: complex loan structures, byzantine transaction systems, high leverage ratios and massive loans with looming maturity dates. New policies designed to cool the market, implemented at central and local government levels, added to these risks, raising official concerns.
Developers, however, have brushed aside worries, pointing to plenty of cash in their pockets. They’re also touting the banking sector’s history with housing loans. During the last financial crisis, they note, banks did not hesitate to extend loans to developers, which helped them survive the shock.
CHINA RAILWAY PRAYS FOR RELIEF
IN MECCA
A light rail project in Islam’s most sacred city, Mecca, has been delayed by an unholy dispute between China’s biggest railway builder China Railway Construction Corp. and Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of Municipality and Rural Affairs. CRCC is demanding the ministry pay an extra 4.1 billion yuan for overruns tied to frequent contract modifications by the Saudis. The two sides signed a US$ 1.77 billion contract last year.
A scheduled November opening for the Mecca railway has been delayed, although CRCC expects to finish the project by next May. CRCC has hoped Mecca would give it a foothold in Saudi Arabia and the Middle East. But the Chinese company has been frustrated by customer demands for more stations and temperature control adjustments, which significantly increased construction costs. CRCC has appealed for an additional payment.